What Could Gaza/HAMAS Have Counted on When Launching a War Against Israel?
All previous attacks by Gaza against Israel followed the same pattern: Gaza initiates bombardments against Israel; Israel retaliates; Hamas and its allies flood the media and social networks with pictures of dead and crying children, triggering an outcry: "This must be stopped immediately; it doesn't matter who started it or who's right—the violence must end." Israel would halt its strikes. Gaza would declare victory, receiving fresh streams of financial and humanitarian aid, increased because now it needed "rebuilding." Those allocating and channeling the aid would benefit from greater kickbacks. Gaza would stockpile new rockets, and the cycle would repeat.
Why did our military believe Gaza would not initiate a full-scale war?
Because militarily, Gaza cannot stand against Israel—the imbalance of power is too great. The Hamas leadership understood this very well and could not fail to comprehend the situation.
So what did our military overlook, and what was Hamas counting on? They overlooked Hamas’s political support—not just from corrupt officials eager for fresh financial inflows to Gaza, but also from broad segments of left-wing circles in Israel and internationally.
Hamas clearly anticipated executing a swift and effective raid on border military facilities, demonstrating their efficiency to sponsors, showing that with continued funding and armament, they could build forces capable of confronting Israel. They expected Israel’s retaliatory strike to be curtailed by the usual methods: photographs and videos of dead children, weeping women, and outcries from the global and domestic left—"this must stop immediately, regardless of who started it; don't you have sympathy for innocent children?"
But a) the attack proved far too effective, catching Israeli forces severely off-guard, and b) most crucially, Gaza residents storming through the breached border into Israeli settlements and a music festival committed unimaginable atrocities—and proudly posted videos on Telegram, which quickly spread to other social networks and media, thus breaking the traditional pattern of anti-Israeli propaganda.
In other words, if we assume Israel wages war as wars have traditionally been waged—as against Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan—Gaza stands no chance. But Hamas attacked, betting Israel would not fight through to the end.
Currently, the only chance Hamas has to avoid destruction is a ceasefire—pushed by Israeli leftists ("deal now at any price") and other Hamas allies, including numerous U.S. and European officials benefiting from kickbacks tied to Gaza’s financial and humanitarian aid.
I've previously written about the conflict between "bunnies" and "lions" within Israeli society. Indeed, it must be understood that the "bunnies" bear responsibility for the October 7, 2023, attack. Had Hamas relied solely on military strength without counting on political protection, it would not have carried out the invasion. Hamas clearly depended on international pressure and internal Israeli leftist influence as its main tools for neutralizing Israeli retaliation.
This frightening realization for leftists is underscored by the document published in Bild, revealing Hamas’s reliance on the Israeli left in its war against Israel—a publication that led to Eli Feldstein’s arrest. Ironically, the disclosure of this document harmed Hamas's political plans rather than the Israeli government’s, raising the rhetorical question: whose secret plans were those arresting Feldstein actually protecting?
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